23 November 2013

Medieval Demographics Done RIGHT (Pt II)

1)    Location

Any urban area, whether village, town or city, arises out of the need for trade.  While a small town can coalesce in a prosperous inland farming district or gather around a castle (indeed, skilled labor is necessary for a castle to be built), larger towns or cities locate on navigable rivers or natural harbors.  Just as an example, how many cities in the United States before the railroad era were NOT founded on a navigable waterway?  (Answer below. †)  One of the reasons in colonial America that Boston took off as a major port and Plymouth didn't was that Plymouth's harbor is quite shallow and silts up readily.

Consider also access to building materials, wood for fuel, fresh water, and nearby arable land.  The more negative factors there are that deter growth – the site's on an invasion route, a lack of forests for fuel, mountainous or swampy terrain – there must be counterbalancing benefits that make people want to live there (there’s a large gold mine, the location is unusually defensible, the kingdom’s northern border army needs a base, it's the birthplace of the Goddess of Winter and a pilgrimage site) and/or mitigating factors (less need for fuel because the town's on the equator, the local lichen is magically nutritious, the river going through is the only decent water source within 500 miles).  Another reason Boston took off and Plymouth didn't was that the soil of Plymouth's latifundia was sandy and not hugely fertile, and Boston's wasn't.

You’re also not going to get a town of any size far in the outback, away from trade routes or transportation infrastructure, no matter the benefits.  When all is said and done, the main reason people live in towns -- dirty, smelly, crowded, verminous, disease-ridden, dangerous places at medieval tech -- is to find work.  If work isn't to be had, folks aren't going to stick around.  If there are no resources and no trade, a ruler would have to be mad (and filthy rich) to subsidize a city out in the middle of nowhere, for no good reason whatsoever.  It's expensive enough, and hard enough on the soldiers, to subsidize a strictly military outpost in a forsaken outback: ask the Romans, the French, the British, or the mid- to late-19th century Americans, for that matter.

If your realm tries anyway to maintain a sizable town away from key natural resources (see below), that means you need an equally-sizable logistics train to support it.  This is easily disruptible by the realm's enemies.  (This, of course, can form the basis for plots.)

2)     Resources

A town of a thousand people will consume roughly twenty bushels of grain, around 800 gallons of wine, tea or beer, about three cattle, and about a hundred smaller livestock ... daily.  Throw in the vast amounts of vegetables common to the low-tech peasant diet, fruit, cooking oil, herbs ... Coming back to water.  A human needs about two liters of fresh water a day (or liquid equivalent) in order to survive, more to offset strenuous activity or high temperatures.  Cooking and washing use up a good deal more.  The various industries of a large medieval town or city uses roughly ten times that much fresh water per capita – for tanners, laundries, fullers, foundries, smiths, numerous others.  

(Never mind agriculture.  It takes four tons of water to grow enough cotton for a pair of trousers.  The amount of water livestock sucks up as a percentage of their food value is far more than grain or vegetables need.)

You’ll have to have market squares to hawk that food.  That means wagonloads of food and drink (the twenty-five bushels of grain alone takes up not quite two wagons) each and every day, and if your roads are impassible in winter, you need many more wagons coming through before then.  Storage?  Well ... if you keep your civic food stores dry, protected from vermin, and secure, they’ll keep two to four years without magic.  Maybe.  Say, does your gamesystem have a food preservation enchantment?  Because without that, food goes bad fast.  You don't have refrigerators, so the tomato that gets picked or the fish that gets caught needs to be eaten today.  By tomorrow it'll be iffy, and the day thereafter it'll be compost.  Those vegetables and fish -- obviously -- are NOT coming from the next province over.  They're coming from 5-10 miles away at the outside ... or, well, before they get to market, they become compost.

Also consider the stability of the countryside.  If you have continual plagues, invasions, bandit hordes and wars trucking through your lands, you’re not going to have prosperous cities, because there won’t be enough peasants left to grow enough food to feed them, nor enough traders surviving the gauntlet to provide raw materials and needful goods at economically feasible prices.  (That thousand-person town will need a minimum of five square miles of dedicated farmland, exclusive of the aforementioned peasant farmers needed to grow that food ... presuming the soil is good and the land is well watered and flat, there are no droughts, famines or civil disruptions, that the farmers employ sound agricultural practices, and that the harvest isn't whisked away to support a far-off royal capital or the realm's own marauding army.  For anyone who knows anything about medieval life -- or, indeed, low-tech agricultural travails generally -- that is a very tall order, and most medieval towns were food-importers.) You’ll also need a surplus enough to support non-productive elements, such as religious centers, universities, the aforementioned army or the bureaucracy of a capitol city.

3)    Trades

The absolute basic tradesmen without which a village doesn’t exist are a smith and a miller.  Next in importance (not necessarily in that order) comes potters, carpenters, weavers, leatherworkers, masons, coopers, and at least one tavern/alehouse. 

A small town will have multiples of the more important trades, and specialization will start to occur: extra blacksmiths turn into farriers, silversmiths and armorers; weavers into tailors, dyers and fullers; leatherworkers into saddlers and cobblers; carpenters into coopers, cartwrights, cabinet and furniture makers.  Specialized businesses appear: scribe/notaries, brokers, herbalists, shipwrights, healers, various food occupations such as brewers, bakers and butchers.  

(Psst: this doesn't mean that a bog-standard carpenter has no idea how to fashion a new wheel for a wagon, or that the country smith can't figure out how to make a broadsword.  They're just not specialists, may well not have access to specialist tools or the best possible materials, and aren't particularly practiced at making swords or shaping wheels.  Those goods may well be "Cheap", in GURPS terms: something that doesn't work as well as a specialist's creation, which will malfunction more often and break more readily.)

As a town gets larger, more specialization will be the rule.  Some towns concentrate on particular trades – the center of a wool-producing district will have a preponderance of cloth manufacturing trades (as much as two-thirds of all merchants), as well as wool merchants and factors for outside trade.  A grape-producing district will not only need vintners and distillers, but coopers and glassblowers as well.  Two-thirds nautical trades is pretty standard for any port city – chandlers, shipfitters, boatwrights, brokers, warehouses, sail lofts, ropewalks, salters, longshoremen, and the several elements of a fishing industry.  And so on.

Below is a rough outline of what businesses will be found in your population:

Village up to 500 people:

1 church (with one, maybe two clergy, and appropriate acolytes; also possibly lay-led)
1 healer/herbalist/physician (in some cultures, this would be one of the priests)
1 scribe/notary
1 inn/tavern
1 mill
1 smith

2-3 miscellaneous businesses, depending on prevailing local industries.  A seaport village might have a boatwright and a chandler, a farming village might have a tanner, a mountain village might have a mining concern, anyone might have a cartwright – especially if the village is on a highroad.

The village wouldn’t have much in the way of bureaucracy:  the mayor/reeve/headman, who’d be a respected farmer or businessman, and perhaps a single representative from the local overlord or central government.  If the village is on a significant trade route, there may be a tax/toll collector, perhaps a small barracks of a sergeant and three or so soldiers. 

In addition, most other residents will do various jobs – carpentry, pottery, basketweaving, brewing, weaving, masonry – on a part time basis.  There wouldn't be storefronts or colorful shop signs much beloved of Hollywood and Ren Faires – why, when everyone knows what everyone does? – but be more along the lines of "Eh, ma'am, if'n ye want some good jars, Goodwife Adrienne's a dab hand with the pottery.  That there's her cottage, the one wi'the gate missin' a hinge.  The smith promised he'd get t'that next week." 

Neither Goodwife Adrienne nor much of any craftsman the village has will have a plethora of off-the-shelf wares, but this is dependent on the time of year.  Low-tech villagers/farmers spent a lot of time in the winter doing up various crafts for future sale, mostly to itinerant peddlers and merchants coming around when the weather clears. The adventurers swinging by the village in March may well find those good sealed pint pottery jars they forgot to buy before leaving the city.

General merchant?  Not in anything this small.  Small town "general merchants" such as you see on TV shows or in 18-19th century reenactment museums are anachronistic to the medieval period.  Such wares that aren't made locally come from two sources: a local taking orders from his neighbors before taking his cart to the Big City to trade, or traveling peddlers coming through the area from time to time. 

Speaking of itinerant peddlers and merchants ... depending on the area, you might not have a local cobbler -- for instance -- but one riding a circuit.  Fellow's usually in town the first two weeks of May, the locals bring him cured hides, he churns out fitted good quality boots.  Probably would have no problem putting the adventurers on his list, if they didn't mind hanging out.  If the adventurers plod on through any time between June and April, no luck.

Locals also take on minor posts on a part-time basis – a village will have a constable, a handful of aldermen, and other more minor posts: a hayward, a woodward, depending on how stratified your culture is.  The village may have a one-room schoolhouse -- well, the dwelling of the teacher, anyway -- and classes might be taught by the scribe, a priest, or an educated villager.

Town up to 1500 people:

1 bank
3-5 scribes/notaries/lawyers (some working for the others)
2 churches (with 4-5 clergy between them and appropriate acolytes)
3 healer/herbalists/apothecaries
2 butchers
1 baker
1-2 fishers or trappers (depending on location)
1 full scale inn, 2-3 taverns, 1 brothel
3 blacksmiths (one a specialist, such as a farrier), 1 silver/tinsmith
3 cloth shops, one which is likely to be a rug or tapestry maker; 1 tailor
4-5 general merchants, one which is likely to be a specialist (outfitters, say)
2-3 mills
1 large-scale pottery
1-2 masons
1-2 carpenters, 1 cart/wheelwright
1-2 leatherworkers
7-8 miscellaneous businesses

Now we have a prosperous town, and the center of its district.  When the local farmers say "I'm walkin' t' town, be back tomorra," this is where they're headed.  The 500-person village might be in the middle of nowhere.  This town wouldn't have gotten this big if it was.

Other than general merchants and chandlers, they still aren't likely to have much in the way of off-the-shelf wares.  But ... I was struck when visiting the silversmith's shop in Historic Deerfield (replicating a mid-17th century New England frontier town).  It didn't have off-the-shelf either.  What it *did* have was a row of silver and pewter spoons, and a row of pewter plates and bowls.  They were all presentation pieces, done up with various borders, decorations and styles.  Pick a pattern, that's what the silversmith would make up for you.  This is how things were done low-tech.

A number of businesses have a DIY element.  Take a bakery, for instance.  Many a low-tech bakery was less about churning out loaves themselves than in providing oven space for the neighborhood housewives to bring their own loaves for baking, being rather more economical that way.  (This was also a sideline of neighborhood taverns, by the bye.)

This is the point where a small bureaucracy would arise.  The town would have a mayor/reeve, a captain for the local militia and who’d also be responsible for maintenance of any defenses, a tax collector and a dedicated scribe.  The mayor might double as the magistrate, if there wasn't a feudal ruler close to hand.  If a regional center of any sort, the town would attract central government staff – a district governor or noble and his staff, a couple dozen soldiers and officers – and there'd be an appropriate building housing the same: a manor house, a small keep.

For towns of over 1500 people, use the following percentages:

* Bakery: 1 per 750.
* Brewers: 1 per 1500, at a ratio of 3:1 between brewers and distilleries/wineries; obviously variable depending on what booze-producing crops you have.  Inns and taverns often brewed their own tipple.
* Butcher: 1 per 800.
* Carpenters: 1 per 500, at a ratio of 2:1 between "rough" carpenters and specialty crafts such as wheel/cartwrights, cabinetmakers, coopers and carvers.
* Churches: 1 per 750.
* Clergy: 1 per 200, obviously hugely variable depending on how religious your town is.
* Dyers: 1 per 3000.  This signifies a large, industrial-style operation, as opposed to smaller household- or job-lot sized businesses.
* Financial: 1 per 1000, at a ratio of 1:2 between banks and moneychangers/lenders.
* Fishmongers: 1 per 400 (selling fresh) in a port, 1 per 1200 (selling dried or salted) inland.
* Foundries: 1 per 5000.  Again, a large-scale industrial operation.
* General Merchants: 1 per 350, at a ratio of 3:1:1 between “country stores,” salters/spice merchants and brokers/factors/large-scale shippers.
* Inn/Tavern: 1 per 200, at a ratio of 1:5 between inns and taverns.  These neighborhood taverns are not your stereotype Giant Common Room places; a period neighborhood tavern seated about 30 with a bar about the size of a kitchen counter, and the clientele was exclusively from that block. (This aside from that a number of shopkeepers would end the business day by setting out a few stools and a barrel of brew, turning into impromptu barkeeps.)
* Leatherworkers: 1 per 500, at a ratio of 2:1 between generic leatherworkers and cobblers/saddlers/etc.
* Masons: 1 per 500, at a ratio of 1:2:4 between sculptors, masons and stonecutters.
* Mills: 1 per 600, at a rough ratio of 3:1 between grist mills and sawmills, fulling mills and the like.
* Potteries: 1 per 500, at a ratio of 1:4 between glaziers/glassblowers and potteries.
* Scribes: 1 per 150, at a ratio of 1:2:5 between lawyers, notaries and scribes.
* Smith: 1 per 500, at a ratio of 3-4:1 between blacksmiths and silver/tin/goldsmiths/armorers.
* Tanners: 1 per 3500.  Another large, industrial-style operation, as opposed to smaller household- or job-lot sized businesses.
* Teachers: 1 per 200, of which 1 in 4-5 are non-teaching scholars and scientists, who might nonetheless do part-time teaching and tutoring to raise some coin.  Small neighborhood schools and academies were far more common in medieval and Renaissance times than many folks imagine, and literacy rates in urban communities were 50% or better above the blue-collar classes.
* Textile trades: 1 per 100, at a ratio of 3:1:1 between weavers/spinners/carders, tailors/carpet/tapestry makers and furriers.  A town of this size probably has at least one large-scale cloth manufactory.
* Universities: These come around one to a city.  Starting at about 10,000 people, you’ll get at least an advanced institute of learning of some sort.  Capitals of any size, as well as major regional cities, will have a full-blown university.

Miscellaneous Shops: 1 per 200.  Possibilities for these:

* Common: stables, brothels, ropemakers, herbalist/apothecaries, barbers, lampmakers, painters, bathhouses, sharpeners, thatchers.

* Less common: bowyers/fletchers, ship’s chandlers, candlemakers, horse trainers, jewelers, outfitters, pawnshops, soapmakers, undertakers, messengers/heralds.

* Rare: gaming houses, perfumers, papermakers, seers, engravers, clockmakers, animal trainers, architects, cartographers, engineers, instrument makers. 

Keep in mind regional trades – for instance, a seaport would have sailmakers, at least one ropewalk, fishdryers, nautical carvers, chandlers, warehouses, specialty ship’s carpenters and smiths, navigators, steersmen, boatmakers, tattoo artists, shipwrights, and if large enough marine underwriters and freight shippers.  A mountain mining town would have specialty manufacturing shops producing mining tools and equipment, sawmills, assayers, alchemists (to produce certain chemicals necessary for mining and assaying certain ores), trappers and the like.

This is the population level where guilds will start to exist; around 4-5 similar businesses is the minimum number to form a sustainable guild.  Those aren’t the only support groups, of course; churches will have at least one sodality (and usually more than that) each.

The market square of a town this size now only sees the local farmers selling vegetables, but itinerant traders peddling just about everything else.  These are often heavily regulated and taxed, and crackdowns from town guilds are frequent.  Entertainers also exist, largely performing in the market, in front of any civic building or church, or available to play in an inn.

Towns and cities of this level have sizable bureaucracies, operating out of a civic hall.  Areas such as tax collection, records, justice and civic defense spawn whole departments.  A seaport would have a harbormaster, his staff, and naval units; any trading town would have an official in charge of weights and measures ... and probably in possession of the "standard" weights and weighbeams!  Formal military companies almost certainly exist. 

4)    Design

Cities aren’t particularly logical – the odds of having a nice grid layout, if you’re mapping it, are poor.  Consider that your city started out as a village.  It’ll have a relatively primitive tangle of streets in the center, haphazardly radiating out of the original village, which will center around the river/harbor/major road running through the middle, or perhaps around a religious center, castle or other fortification.

Planned towns did exist, but it took certain situations: a government seeking to settle an unpeopled area, a feudal lord wanting the profits and trade a town could provide.  Even so, most of them quickly spread organically from its original planned center ... those that survived.  (Many planned towns quickly failed.)  Plans were sometimes imposed upon extant towns and cities by new rulers or by the growing unsuitability of the original town; numerous cities in Europe had "oldtowns" and "newtowns" pressed together.  Another factor would be in the aftermath of a war or a major fire -- the latter being the chief danger to a medieval town -- where entire city blocks and neighborhoods might be redesigned after being razed.

Obviously, waterborne businesses (mills, shipwrights) will cluster around said river.  It was common for a river town to expand to the other bank, which necessitated at least one bridge.  Oftentimes the rich and poor parts of town were differentiated by which bank of the river they were on.

Low-class and odoriferous trades (tanneries, dyers, soapmakers, slaughterhouses) will cluster downwind in the “poor” part of town.  Beyond that, certain trades required a lot of space -- metalworkers, cartwrights, potters, animal trades -- and gravitated to the peripheries where land was more available and cheaper.

As towns grow larger, civic areas and buildings emerge: courts, wells and aqueducts, town halls, theaters, multiple market squares, caravanserais, jails, belltowers, stadia.

Buildings would also grow taller.  As the town got increasingly cramped, the only way to grow was up.  Townhouses gained a second story, and sometimes a third, and a fourth.  Seldom designed to take the load, with oft-mediocre building materials, and where no one had ever heard of building codes, structural collapses were all too frequent.

Psst ... don't forget canals.  Something you see in a lot of maps of low-tech cities that you do not see on maps of RPG cities are canals.  A lot of low-tech cities had a lot of canals.  It is vastly easier to haul large cargoes on water than it is on land -- much less congestion, many fewer horses, much greater carrying capacity.  (Even today, something like 95% of the world's trade by tonnage is water-borne.)  Canals also help the defensibility of a city ... and speaking of which:
 
5)    Defense

If the town is walled -- and unless your town is in a strong, powerful realm with secure borders and no internal threats (not a hallmark of RPG settings), it absolutely will be -- it may have been gotten its walls quite some time before.  If so, chances are the town’s grown beyond the perimeter.  Medieval towns were almost invariably horribly overcrowded, disease-ridden places, and while it took extreme population pressure to abandon the protection of the walls, sooner or later it happened.

Some medieval cities had several separate walls, built haphazardly over centuries, all attempts to maintain some manner of defensible perimeter.  Consider also that such construction is expensive – building a castle in just a few years took so much money few nobles managed it. The local nobles and magnates were generally taxed to pay for improving city defenses, and generally did so grudgingly, intermittently, and often only under duress.  Defenses were also expensive to maintain (it didn't help that they were often poorly built, with mediocre materials, by the aforementioned strongarmed magnates), and it's entirely possible that broad sections of the walls are in disrepair.  Indeed, the reason why so many Roman-era buildings were in ruins or disappeared entirely is that they were often cannibalized for the stone necessary to build or repair walls, in addition to other buildings. 

Beyond that, walls are inconvenient.  They make carrying goods to and fro a pain in the ass, and they're an impediment to growth and renovation.  (This didn't make the magnates any happier about coughing up the gold to build them.)  Wharves, docks, shipyards and mills are going to be on the wrong side of walls.  Gates built in sufficient number to relieve the pressure compromise the defensibility of the place.

Speaking of which, soldiers.  Standing forces, in medieval western Europe, were by our standards astonishingly small.  Take medieval Southampton, one of England's chief ports and the entrepot for the wool and wine trade between England and France in the Middle Ages, with an estimated population within the walls between 2500-2800.  Even after a catastrophic raid by the French in 1338, with the financial support of major nobles the King directed them to provide, the town struggled to maintain a permanent garrison of as much as a hundred soldiers.  Organized civic police forces just did not exist (at the time, Southampton maintained just six night watchmen), and a castle garrison might well be a couple dozen soldiers or less.

6) Personalities

A theme that keeps repeating throughout medieval annals is that towns and cities are firmly in the grasp of an oligarchy.  A small handful of families and personalities dominate local politics, commerce and social life, often for generations.  They own the guilds that matter, public posts are filled by their patronage, civic amusements are graced by their money and presence.  The laws and rules are rigged in their favor, and the culture is nowhere close to being a meritocracy.  Fail to be very, very polite to the Astirians or the Riannels, and suddenly merchants are very slow to take your orders, and the city's bureaucrats are all "out in meetings" when you show up ...

This ethos doesn't sit well with the average gamer, raised in a Western democracy relatively free of corruption and bearing at least the appearance of a meritocracy, and bringing to the gaming table the paradigm that the PCs are the swaggering masters of the earth before whom lesser mortals (read, "NPCs") all kowtow.  And it's okay if that's one of the aspects of medieval life -- along pervasive filth, disease, slavery, racism, fanaticism and sexual abuse -- you don't want to play.  YMMV ("your mileage may vary," code on many a gaming forum for "Whatever works for you is okay, it doesn't bother me if you have different preferences") is one of the more useful aphorisms to keep in mind when doing tabletop RPG setting creation. 

7) Giant Cities

Yes, I know.  A lot of gamers love giant, million-man cities.  A lot of gamewriters love them, too.  They just don't work.  A city of half a million people or more on medieval tech -- a Rome, a Constantinople, a Baghdad, a Chang'an -- requires a continent-spanning empire and awesome transportation infrastructure to survive.  Once the raiders/pirates have free run of things, once the empire falls, those cities collapse overnight.  In the course of just one century, the population of Rome fell twentyfold, and it didn't get back over a million for over 1500 years, until the 1930s.  And why bother?  A city of 10,000 will have several hundred businesses, more than all but the craziest gamers are ever going to create.  

Heck, take medieval England, the land gamewriters and settings creators love to emulate.  Only two cities in England -- London and York -- are known with a certainty to have broken 20,000 residents at any point in the medieval era.  (London topped out at around 50,000.Bristol and Norwich topped out at just over 10,000, and even counting the suburbs, Southampton couldn't have had as much as 5000. 

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POSTSCRIPT:  A kind reader commented on MDDR Pt I, and made a remark that provoked this postscript: that he'd read Ross' numbers, as many gamers have, but that the numbers didn't work for him.

This is important.  Let's take those 52 scabbardmakers, shall we?  That seems ludicrous, but presuming the number is accurate, there are a few possible explanations.  One is simply that there were a honking lot of swords and daggers in 13th century Paris.  (Not the rapiers and main-gauches most people think of when they think of Parisian swordsmen – those weren't invented for over 200 more years.  We don't actually know what kinds of sword for certain; the earliest known combat manual, the so-called "Tower manuscript," dates from no earlier than 1300.)

So, okay: now what happens if you envision Paris with severe weapon restrictions?

Answer: you probably don't have many scabbardmakers.

And that's the notion to have in mind when assigning numbers.  If you have an illiterate populace, there'll be far fewer booksellers, papermakers and the like.  (The number of scribes and teachers might not change – business still needs to be transacted, and those teachers might be working on rote memorization!)  If there's no native clay, there'll be more basketmakers, more turners and more leatherworkers churning out substitutes, and buildings will be made of wood, not brick.  If the Word of the Gods is that anyone who sails out of sight of land is accursed and damned, a "port" town might have a few coast-hugging vessels for bulk transport and a modest fishing fleet, and that's it.  If half the population of your town are 400-lb rock trolls, you'll need a lot more food coming in to support it.  And so on.

One last factor to keep in mind, not just for demographics but for anyone trying to tell you How Things Were In Medieval Times: we're talking about a few hundred years.  The notion that "medieval" was some monolithic state of being where everything everywhere was exactly the same for 400 years is nonsense.  Poor, chilly, backwards, thinly populated Scotland was a far different place than the rich, densely populated, glittering city-states of Northern Italy (and, as to that, both were far different places than China, India, Persia, Africa, Japan, Mesoamerica ... lands our Eurocentric myopia usually leave out of "medieval" equations).  The 11th century was a far different time than the 14th.

Heck, think of our own era, and how quickly things change.  What kind of businesses exist in our cities, and in what numbers?  In 1954, computers were giant installations that cost millions of dollars and filled large rooms; you could no more obtain them retail than you could walk into Filene's and buy an armored regiment.  In 1984, indy computer stores were popping up all over the place: I bought my first one from a dedicated Atari ST store in Boston.  In 2014, those computer stores are now mostly gone – computers are ubiquitous consumer appliances you can get in your average department store.  I doubt it'll take until 2044 for "personal computers" to be museum pieces, and everyone's using smartphones and tablets ... or their successors.

So – YMMV.

 

POSTSCRIPT II:  If you've read this article before, you might have found it changed.  I first published it over ten years ago.  I've expanded it, tossed in a few more things, tweaked the numbers here and there, cited a book or two I've read in the meantime.  I mention this for a reason: medieval demographics and economics is a still-evolving field.  Our scholarship is better.  Our sources have improved.  New facts, new materials come to light.  Old shibboleths are found wanting and slough away.  The bias of the field in favor of western Europe fades.  Scholars of a previous era, their partisan axegrinding and feuds forgotten, are supplanted by newer ones.

And I keep reading and finding new information myself.  So why not?  Anyone writing a blog does so at least in part out of a healthy ego, but the goal, after all, is to open eyes and make it easier for you to run games.  If I point fingers at others and claim that their numbers aren't good enough, then I need to cowboy up and make my own as good as I can manage.  So drop in on this article if you have a mind, every rare once in a while.  I might have gotten a clue between now and then.

 

† - Indianapolis, and the founders thought the White River was navigable.

28 comments:

  1. Good stuff!... and useful.
    Thanks for putting this up.

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  2. Excellent work, but I have a nitpick: You mention "800 gallons of wine, tea or beer" as daily consumption for a village of 1000 people.
    So, something like three litres per head, babies and children included? I realize many people drank light beer because it was safer than water but still, the number seems a tad high.

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    1. Three liters is indeed the average daily fluid consumption for a human being. In low-tech environments, where the threat of cholera is ever-present, people just didn't drink the polluted water of larger communities if they had any choice in the matter.

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  3. You make it sound as if 12 cups of wine/beer/tea (medieval?) are in addition to the two quarts of water, though.

    http://leslefts.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/the-great-medieval-water-myth.html disputes the "can't drink the water" idea.

    Whether there's a grid depends on your history. Northern medieval Europe or New England, maybe not, but grid urban planning goes back to nearly the dawn of civilization, e.g. Mohenjo-Daro. Greek colonies, Roman military camps, China in general, Aztecs... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_plan

    1000 people isn't much large than a village. I think 10,000 people is where importing food from beyond the immediate countryside becomes an issue. Or is it 50,000?
    1100 AD England had 25 people/km2 overall. Simplistically carrying that down to the area around a town, a 6 km (1 hour walk) radius is 108 km2, or land for about 2500 people, along with their share of lumber or mining.

    If I trust an excessively detailed anime/novel series, one Chinese pattern was summer villages, winter town -- people dispersed for growing the food, then moving together for riding out the winter.

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    1. Indeed, there've been cultures where planned cities were ubiquitous. Not very many, and never for long.

      The radius and numbers for importing food is a huge It Depends: on what scope for fishing there is, on the population density (northern Italy vs Scotland, for instance, had a huge disparity), on how many crops you could bang out, on what *kinds* of crops you had. I couldn't say off the top of my head, but 10,000's a lot more likely a limit than 50,000. Only one city in Europe (Paris) outside of northern Italy passed 50K in the medieval era.

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  4. As for castles and expense or skill, depends on the castle. The big (and surviving) stone castles we think of today, yeah. A motte-and-bailey of ditch, hill, and wooden palisade, or other earthwork/ringwork castles, not so much. They cropped up like mushrooms during the Anarchy, and probably mostly took labor to move dirt around. Few weeks or months, depending on size.

    OTOH Wikipedia suggested a tall stone keep might take 10 years out of mortar limitations as much as anything else -- time for the mortar to dry, I'm guessing. Don't pile on too much weight at once.

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  5. Since you suggest 5sq miles per 1000 urban population, how many farming peasants would you suggest for this land?

    By the MDME article you can expect a ratio cityfolk/farmer of 1-60 to an upper limit of maybe 1-10. But what about you, what do you suggest?

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    1. A 1:10 urban/rural ratio wasn't so much of an upper limit as close to the standard. Depending on your region (northern Italy, say, vs. Ireland or Spain), the percentage of rural residents ran from 85% to 95%. Even medieval Ireland, war-torn and as heavily pastoral as anywhere in Europe, ran about 1:12 by the best estimates.

      As far as rural population per square mile, this varied a good bit. The rural population density of the rich regions of northern Italy ran upwards of 100/sq mi, while Ireland and much of Spain ran around 20/sq mi.

      Five square miles/1000 is a rock-bottom minimum for a northern Italy parallel, and presumes that town is doing some fishing. For a more northerly climate or more marginal farming conditions, you'd need a good bit more.

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  6. This is thread necromancy for certain, but I stumbled across your blog whilst googling medieval demographics and got hooked. These pieces have been fantastic! Thank you.

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    1. Why thank you! I'm glad you've enjoyed them; they've far and away my most page views, so other folks come in from time to time.

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  7. First: loved your pieces, and they helped IMMENSELY in my own worldbuilding. I applaud your scholarship and your insistence on at least a stab at accuracy.
    Second: about the 'scabbardmakers' in your last example. These days, people think of scabbards as being on swords. Back then, they could have been on ANYTHING that needed protecting: sewing awls for example. Also, ALL blades needed scabbards, not just swords and daggers. Utility knives of any description, scissors, etc. Anything with an edge probably needed protecting.
    Thanks again. You're marvelous.

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    1. Thank you for your kind words, Mary!

      On scabbards: indeed, those tools needed protecting. But rather than a fancy scabbard, it'd be much more common for it to be a simple leather wrap held closed with cord or woven thongs.

      Ultimately, though, we can only speculate. I've seen Géraud's list, obviously, but not his source material ... not that I can speak medieval langue d'oil. Whether he accurately translated then-current idiom, at this remove, we don't know.

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    2. You are quite welcome. I've run across the original list that caused this article. If you're interested, it's at http://heraldry.sca.org/names/parisbynames.html

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  8. Thanks so much for these articles. I found them while searching for MDME and I'm so glad I did. Much more sensible numbers.

    Do you happen to have anything about how much fishing could support a population as compared to farmland? I'm building a coastal town that is a regional capital, and I would like to know how many fishermen there are compared to however many farmers I might have, or how far out to sea they would have to go to provide a sustainable "crop" of fish.

    Thanks again!

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    1. Thank you for your kind comment, Heather. And now I get to burst my bubble, because more than most matters involving medieval demographics, fishing invites a giant “It Depends.” The numbers I use for my own campaign are much more of a fiat, because the question is pretty open-ended.

      To wit: how productive are your fishing grounds? Leaving aside the factual consideration that the colder the water is, the more schools of stockfish you get, there’s a tremendous variation involved. A key element to the settlement of eastern North America was the incredible productivity of the Grand and Georges Banks, and I’d stipulate that Newfoundland (far from being the first part of British North America to be settled) would be all-but uninhabited today if it wasn’t smack off of the most productive fishing ground in the history of the world. Supporting ever-larger cities on that’s just a matter of putting more hulls in the water.

      How far out would they have to go? Certainly on 14th century maritime technology, Portuguese, Basque and Breton fishermen made it to the Grand Banks, and certainly made it to Newfoundland centuries before Columbus or Cabot made it anywhere near the New World ... they had to stop and dry the fish SOMEwhere.

      But ... fishing’s amazingly dangerous (it is, even today, the profession with the greatest loss of life per capita in the USA), and warfare or freak storms can wipe out your fishing fleet overnight. If you’ve got a city of 10,000 people dependent on fifteen net tons of fish coming in a day – which is certainly possible – that number being cut in third because the fleet was ravaged by a storm is going to result in disaster pretty quickly. This is one of the areas where magic *can* help a society (something that if you’ve read through my blog you’ll see I’m down on, generally), because just one wizard making accurate weather predictions can save a lot of fishing smacks.

      Other factors involve how urbanized your littoral is, how much competition there is for fishing stocks, what kind of fishing the region’s rivers provide, how good maritime technology is ... you can pretty much handwave any numbers that suit you out of it. One thing is that with enough fish, you don’t need much arable farmland at all – take northern Norway, Newfoundland and pretty much any North Atlantic island group for good examples.

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    2. I did in fact do a roleplay with a large community supported by fishing so this makes me happy.

      In fact I like your blog more every time I visit it

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  9. I just discovered this page, and I want to thank you for your good work. I've always liked Ross' page, but the results always seemed wonky to me in at least some ways. I just never had the wherewithal (or, let's be honest, the interest) to run the numbers myself. Thank you for doing the legwork on this!

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  10. Hello!

    I, as many others, stumbled upon your article while searching for MDME, and am grateful that I did!

    Thank you for your impressive scholarship.

    I've one question, though, that you might be able to help:

    About the population density based on area. MDME's has been contested some times. What do you think of it? Any ideas on this matter?

    Also, on the ratio of cities:towns:population?

    Thanks again

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    1. You're quite welcome! And now let me tackle your question. Part of the issue here is what you, as a gamer and world designer, want. Do you just want some fiat numbers to plug in and come up with results, verisimilitude be hanged? MDME works as well as any such system for that, and a number of companies and designers have come up with such systems.

      Where I differ, as you can see in my postscripts here, is that a monolithic X square miles can support Y people is a mug’s game. Unfortunately, I’ve recently lost many of my pertinent texts in a disaster, so I don’t have the exact numbers at my fingertips, but I wager that the Nile Delta on 14th century technology can support at least twenty times as many people per square mile as Scotland north of the Forth with 10th century technology. Yes: if you tell me that your fantasy world has the terrain of southern England, the growing seasons of Sicily and 12th century tech, society is ordered into smallholders with plots of less than 20 acres, and that the land is more or less at peace, I can give you a reasonably accurate number.

      Whether you’re willing to do that much legwork is up to you!

      As far as urban vs rural goes, one of my comments above is it: depending on various factors, the percentage of rural in western Europe ran 85%-95%. If you want to make that lower, think about why that would be the case: who’s feeding all these citydwellers and with what?

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    2. Thanks for the swift reply! (And sorry for my not-so-swift one)

      Indeed, it is quite hard to address such issues in a general manner. I do think, however, that it is perfectly possible to "systematize" population support in a not so hard algorithm, as way more complex stuff has been reduced to simple systems.

      Of course, a little of verisimilitude would be lost, anyway - things done individually will always be more accurate. BUT, imho the effort isn't in vain. You see, when you're out there, GMing something in a very sandboxy manner, it is incredibly useful to have these generators at hand.

      Now, I have two ideas that maybe you'll find interesting/fun, and perchance could consider:

      1) Instantly I thought about making a Google Sheet using the data you present here, with some switches for things such as "Primary business", "secondary business", "religiosity", "importance of main road", for my own personal use. Again, all that thing about GMing loosely. Then I thought: hey, maybe I could make that public? What do you think of this? Any objection?

      2) On this subject of population support, after reading your awesome and quick answer, I came up with an idea. What do you think of a collaboration to create a generator able to come up with those answers on ratio, based on many variables? We could think of factors that multiply population support, such as technology, quality of the land itself, climate, etc. I wouldn't say I'm a programmer, but this would be quite simple to do in a sheets software. I'm willing to do a good amount of legwork to make sure my world makes as much sense as possible, before I throw in dragons and flying islands. And, if in that process, I can help other people on their worldbuilding efforts, that's even better.

      PS: I much appreciate your willingness to throw numbers based on an answer about terrain/growing seasons/tech. Only problem is: it depends. My fantasy world is going to be wildly variable on all this, so I'd probably be more interested in how heavily each of these factors impact and average numbers.

      PS2: English isn't my main language, and all my learning about it is by myself, so I may commit some grammatical mistakes here and there. Sorry 'bout that.

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    3. Well, I've no grounds for complaint on non-swift replies ...

      As far as using any of my data for your private or public use, that's why I have this up in the first place: feel free! (Never mind that it's not "my" data, really: anything you see on this blog is the result of my research of the data provided by expert, professional historians.) Alas, I don't have the time to collaborate on such a project, between life, my own tabletop campaigning and other commitments, especially paying attention to my loving wife!

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  11. Hey, I really love your clear descriptions of both the statistics, but also the life behind those a bit (like the taverns being a small 'living room' style area, rather than the grand hall we often think of).

    I was wondering what the actual occurrence of tradespeople were in these different towns? Obviously with the smaller places like a village where the potter is just the person who happens to have been making pottery recently, or is known for it, this doesn't apply. But in a town of 1500 or city like your 1500+ range, what percentage of the populace would be actively engaged in these jobs?

    Side note, the number 85% of medieval population were peasants gets thrown around a bit, do you find that holds water, or is it an over-simplification?

    Thank you again for some wonderful posts and your insight!

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    1. Thank you kindly! I try. See, far too many of our ideas about how life looked before our time comes from the media and pop culture, which is out for entertainment, not accuracy. So very much of what we know of the 19th century American West (for instance) comes from glowing hagiographies and the requirements of Hollywood -- heroic black cowboys and widespread morphine addiction didn't fly in the 1940s and 50s. Another silly example is that I've butted heads with more than one idiot on forums who insist -- absent a lick of evidence beyond Ren Faire midways -- that medieval village shops all had colorful "Ye Olde Potterie Barn" shop signs. Ugh.

      I answer your question about the percentage of trades in larger towns above; it's a generalization, and would vary for different times, places and milieus ... beyond which is the ever-present difficulty with medieval scholarship that so much of what historians state is guesswork from often-incomplete and scattered sources. I'm comfortable with my numbers, anyway. If you'd like different ones, though, sure, go for it!

      85% peasantry is another common generalization, yep. This, too, would vary: in heavily urbanized and rich areas like the Netherlands, Flanders, northern Italy, it was fewer. In very sparsely populated and impoverished areas like Russia, it was higher. If you want to tweak the percentages to your own purposes, I'd look at the following factors: how much your culture is a meritocracy, how feudal it is, how rich it is, and how your agricultural technology shapes up. A rich meritocracy with very high crop yields, plainly there wouldn't be so many peasants.

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  12. Long shot to get an answer, but I'll try.

    Question about mills, specifically, water mills in cities: If I'm building a city of 25,000, does it make sense to have all of the mills, by your numbers, 40, inside the city? If so, where would they go?

    Thank you

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    1. Nah, not so much of a longshot: I keep up the blog, and see comments on my e-mail, so.

      First off, "mill" is a pretty variable thing. They don't have to be water; they can be wind-driven, animal-driven, muscle-driven. Heck, GURPS has a spell called Dancing Object, which can automate a simple object to do repetitive work, as well and as fast as a very strong man can do it. So, basically, you can enchant a driveshaft to go at pretty decent RPM, tirelessly, 24-7, and the gearing to allow that to drive a millstone is well within the capacity of Iron Age technology.

      The *size* of the thing is also a factor: there's a small mill operation with a couple stones no more than a yard across, and there's the awesome Roman mill complex of Barbegal, with sixteen overshot water wheels and an estimated capacity of milling just short of five tons of flour a day. You would indeed get a lot of these within city walls -- John Langdon cites the number of mills in England in 1300 between ten thousand and fifteen thousand -- but obviously a Bargebal-size complex wouldn't be, and odoriferous types like fulling mills would be on the outskirts.

      Where, within a city? Bridges, for one. They were often choked with mills, taking advantage of faster water in the center of the current, and so much so to sometimes make navigation both in the river and on the bridge tricky. Ship mills (basically, a barge looking a lot like a 19th century paddle steamer) were invented by the Byzantines and ubiquitous in Europe by the end of the 6th century, and had the advantage of not needing to be in a fixed, permanent location.

      Otherwise? Where convenient. You'd think, for instance, that just about any mill would need to be sited where it'd be relatively convenient to bring the raw materials in, and relatively convenient to where the *output* would be needed -- an ore-crushing mill near your smithing district, for instance.

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    2. I appreciate your answer! Do you have any recommendations for books to learn this kind of thing. I'm interested in cartography and learning about all of this.

      Thank you!

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    3. Mm. It depends how indepth you want to go and how hard you want to work at it. Some of the texts I have are really for the hardcore researchers (and I've been at this for over forty years now), and some are long out of print. Where I would *start*, if doing it from scratch today, is Wikipedia, honestly: its technological articles are reasonably detailed for gaming purposes, and come with bibliographies and citations. As far as more? Hmmm. Stay tuned; I think I should turn this answer into my next blog post.

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    4. I'm interested in filling in the gaps of my favorite video games, at least, as much as I can as far as trying to explain why fantasy cities are where they are. I also want to fill in the land around them with farms, mills, other industry etc. My biggest struggle right now is the explanation of how villages would look next to each other with the agriculture or manorial system, what other resource centered areas would look like and what buildings would be there, and kind of where those resource areas kind of pop up in the map. I'm interested in the city, but I'm more interested in the area around the city that kind of made it relevant in the first place. Thank you again!

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